Championship · Tue 13 Oct, 22:00
Under 2.5 goals @ 2.20 · 44%
The goal model gives Under 2.5 a 53.5% chance, well above the market's 44.1%. Preston look weak in attack, with no goals in two of their last six games and only six goals in total across them. The headlines also describe a Preston injury crisis, which could blunt their attack further.
Recent form points the other way: five of Birmingham's last six games and four of Preston's went over 2.5 goals. Birmingham have conceded in every one of those six games, and Preston have let in 10 across theirs. The expected goals add up to about 2.53, right on the line, and the market prices Under as the less likely outcome.
Both sides have reported injury worries: Preston an 'injury nightmare' after a loss at Millwall, and Birmingham a feared Osayi-Samuel blow. None of it clearly favours fewer goals.