Championship · Sat 7 Nov, 15:30
Under 2.5 goals @ 2.14 · 47%
Kuponcu rates this at 47% against the market’s 47% (goal model: 46%): fair odds 2.11. Only take it at odds of 2.11 or higher.
Bristol City's games have been low-scoring: four of their last six finished under 2.5 goals, and they failed to score in three of them. Norwich also lost three in a row 1-0 or 2-1 before their recent run. Both teams played midweek, and a defender is back for Bristol, so this could be a tighter game.
Expected goals add up to about 2.83 (1.45 v 1.38), which points towards over 2.5 rather than under. Norwich's last three games all went over 2.5, with 10 goals scored across them, including 4-0 and 3-2 wins. The market and the model both give Under less than a 50% chance.
Rob Dickie's early return may strengthen Bristol's defence, while Norwich's unspecified double boost could help their attack, so the news is mixed overall for Under.
The case against Under is moderate. Both the expected goals (about 2.83 combined) and the market put Under below 50%, and Norwich's last three games produced 10 goals between their own 4-0, 3-2 and 3-1 scores. Bristol's low-scoring run and Rob Dickie's return give some support, but the pick still looks more likely to lose than win, and skipping it is a reasonable choice.