Championship · Tue 13 Oct, 21:45
Under 2.5 goals @ 2.02 · 48%
The goal model rates Under 2.5 at about 64%, well above the market's 48%, and expects only 2.14 goals in total (1.47 Burnley, 0.67 Charlton). Charlton's last six games are low-scoring: two 0-0 draws, a 1-0 and a 1-1, and only two of the six went over 2.5. Burnley scored exactly one goal in each of their six listed games.
The market makes Over slightly more likely than Under, which is a direct disagreement with the model. Burnley's defence has leaked goals: 1-3 at Swansea, 1-4 at Norwich and 1-2 against Bristol City, so three of their six listed games went over 2.5. Charlton have also lost 0-4 at Stoke and 1-3 at Cardiff, and the form data stops on 19 September, so it misses Burnley's recent win at Watford, which a headline calls "heavy".
Headlines point to a heavy Burnley win at Watford, which hints at more attacking output than the form data shows, and give no clear status for Amdouni and Raghouber; there is no relevant Charlton team news.