Championship · Fri 16 Oct, 22:00
Burnley to win @ 3.15 · 33%
At 3.15 the price is above the sharp market's fair odds of 2.997, and the goal model makes Burnley more likely to win (44%) than the market does (33%), with expected goals of 1.6 to 1.27 in their favour. Wolves have lost a player, Gomes, and their manager says he is short of wingers. Burnley's 4-0 win away at Watford shows they can score.
A report on the 2-2 draw with Charlton says Burnley have not won at home in a year. Their recent home results in the data are D, L, D. Wolves have picked up results away from home, winning at Sheffield United and drawing at Birmingham, and both teams played on 13 October, so tiredness and squad rotation make this match less predictable.
The news is mixed: Wolves' injury and shortage of wingers help Burnley, but Burnley's year without a home win, confirmed again in the late 2-2 draw with Charlton, cancels that out.