La Liga · Fri 16 Oct, 22:00
Deportivo La Coruña to win @ 2.17 · 47%
The goal model rates Deportivo La Coruña clearly ahead, at 2.02 expected goals against 1.31, and gives them a higher chance of winning (53.7%) than the market does (46.9%). Levante have no away win in their last six: a 3-1 loss at Villarreal and goalless draws at Malaga and Osasuna. They have also conceded 10 goals in their last three matches.
Deportivo have won once in their last four, a draw with Betis and a loss to Sevilla at home and a 3-2 defeat at Sociedad, after winning their first two. Levante can score, with 3 against Sevilla and 5 against Betis, so the draw or an away result is a real possibility. The market price sits clearly below the model, which suggests some caution about the home side.
The supplied headlines are general previews or about other clubs, with no specific injury or line-up news for either team, so they have no bearing on the pick.