La Liga · Sat 7 Nov, 18:15
Under 2.5 goals @ 1.86 · 54%
Kuponcu rates this at 54% against the market’s 54% (goal model: 57%): fair odds 1.86. Only take it at odds of 1.86 or higher.
The goal model rates Under 2.5 at 57.5%, above the market's 53.9%, and projects only about 2.38 total goals (1.28 v 1.10). Espanyol have scored just 5 goals in their last 6, never more than one in a game. Seven of the two sides' combined last 12 matches finished with two goals or fewer.
Espanyol's defence has been leaky, with three of their last six games reaching three or more goals (1-2, 1-3, 1-2). Deportivo just scored twice against Osasuna, and a headline says Aubameyang was decisive on his return, which could add attacking threat. At a price near 1.86 this is close to a coin flip, and one goal either way decides it.
The only relevant item is Aubameyang's decisive return for Deportivo (and Casado nearing fitness), which slightly raises the chance of goals; the home-side headlines are mostly about other clubs.
The case against is weak. Both teams' recent games, and the model's projection of about 2.38 goals, lean slightly towards Under. Even so, this is close to a coin flip at about 54%: Espanyol concede often, and Deportivo's attack may be getting stronger with Aubameyang reportedly back, so one goal either way flips the result.