Champions League · Wed 4 Nov, 20:45
Result: 3–2 · tip lost
Liverpool to win @ 1.59 · 64%
Kuponcu rates this at 64% against the market’s 64%: fair odds 1.57. Only take it at odds of 1.57 or higher.
The sharp market makes Liverpool clear favourites at about 64%, and the price of 1.59 is slightly above the fair odds of 1.566. Headlines report a "major injury blow" for Fenerbahce, and one report lists 7 players ruled out and 2 doubts for the match. That could weaken the home side.
No goal model or recent form data is available, so the market price is the only estimate. Liverpool also have injury concerns, with headlines naming Frimpong, Ekitike and Bradley. Fenerbahce may get Mason Greenwood back, and an away game in Istanbul is a hard place to win, so roughly one time in three Liverpool will fail to win.
Both sides have injury news: Fenerbahce reportedly suffer a major blow, but Greenwood may return and Liverpool also have absentees, so overall the news slightly favours Liverpool without being decisive.
The case against this bet is weak. My score is 34 out of 100, which counts as a weak objection on the scale. It is not a value bet: the price is close to the sharp market's fair price, and the market has Liverpool as clear favourites at about 64%. The bet depends entirely on that market view, because there is no goal model and no recent-form data for this competition to check it against. The team news is unclear and cuts both ways. Liverpool have injury headlines naming Frimpong, Ekitike and Bradley, and Greenwood may return for Fenerbahce. The '7 ruled out' report doesn't say which side the absences belong to, so it can't be read as clearly helping Liverpool. Even so, none of this is strong enough to overturn the market. The main risk is the usual one for an away favourite: about one time in three, Liverpool will draw or lose.