Premier League · Sat 7 Nov, 15:30
Under 2.5 goals @ 1.95 · 52%
Kuponcu rates this at 52% against the market’s 52% (goal model: 53%): fair odds 1.92. Only take it at odds of 1.92 or higher.
Leeds have stayed under 2.5 goals in four of their last six, including three straight away or home games with two goals or fewer, and have failed to score in three of them. Tottenham's last six also produced four unders (2-0, 2-0, 1-1, 0-0), and both the sharp market (52.1%) and the goal model (53.4%) make Under the slight favourite.
The expected goals add up to 2.53, right on the line, so this is close to a coin flip. Tottenham are in form with 7 goals in their last three wins, and reports say several of their injured players, including an £85m star, could return, which may add attacking threat.
Reports of Tottenham players returning from injury tilt slightly toward more goals, and a possible Leeds defensive return (Rodon) partly offsets this, so the news is mixed and does not rule the pick out.
The case against Under is weak. The supplied expected goals add up to about 2.53, Tottenham have scored 7 goals in three games, and reported Tottenham injury returns could add attacking threat. On the other side, Leeds have struggled to score, Tottenham have kept two clean sheets in a row, and both the market and the model make Under a slight favourite. This is close to a coin flip rather than a clear mistake, and none of these objections is strong enough to rule the pick out.