Championship · Wed 14 Oct, 22:00
Over 2.5 goals @ 1.73 · 58%
West Ham's last six games averaged well over three goals, and five of them went over 2.5 (6-0, 4-2, 3-2, 3-0, 2-2). The expected goals add up to about 2.87 (1.09 for Lincoln, 1.78 for West Ham), and both the market (58%) and the model (55%) put the over above even money. A news headline also reports Lincoln's last match as a 3-0 defeat at Sheffield United, which suggests their defence can be broken down.
Lincoln's games have been very low-scoring: only one of their last six listed matches had more than two goals, and three of them were 1-0 wins. The model's 55% is below the market's 58%, so it is less confident than the price. If Lincoln sit deep at home and keep the score tight, the game could finish with two goals or fewer.
The news is mostly mixed: Lincoln conceded three at Sheffield United and have an attacker injury of unclear severity, while West Ham report an injury boost and a few predicted line-up changes, none of which clearly changes the goals outlook.