Premier League · Sun 8 Nov, 19:30
Manchester United to win @ 2.23 · 45%
Kuponcu rates this at 45% against the market’s 45% (goal model: 42%): fair odds 2.20. Only take it at odds of 2.20 or higher.
The sharp market still makes Manchester United the slight favourite at home, with a 45.5% probability, and the goal model also gives them more expected goals (1.58 to 1.36). Aston Villa have conceded in five of their last six games, so United should get chances. The price sits close to fair, so you are not paying a big premium.
United have not won in six games (three losses, three draws) and have scored only 3 goals while conceding 9, including 0-3 at home to Bournemouth and 0-2 at Chelsea. Villa are unbeaten in five, with wins over Man City and away at Newcastle. The model gives United only 41.7%, below the market, and the team news points to a long injury list.
Headlines say 10 players are set to miss the game, Rashford has picked up an 'issue', a costly signing has suffered an injury setback and Sesko is still recovering, all of which weakens United; Villa's news is only minor selection questions.
This is not a value bet, so it stands or falls on the football, and the football is against United. They have gone six games without a win, scoring 3 and conceding 9, while Villa are unbeaten in five. The model rates United lower than the market does, and the injury headlines point to a weakened home side. The market may already have priced some of that news in, but backing United to win here looks like a weak pick that is better skipped.