Championship · Tue 13 Oct, 21:45
Millwall to win @ 2.68 · 38%
The goal model rates Millwall more highly than the market does (44.8% against 37.5%) and expects them to outscore Swansea at home (1.42 xG against 1.04). Headlines also say Millwall have just beaten Preston, which suggests they are recovering after a poor September. Millwall scored freely in recent home games, including a 4-0 win over Bolton and a 2-2 draw with West Ham.
Swansea are in much better form, with four wins in their last six listed games. Headlines say they came from behind to beat Norwich and are now four points clear. Millwall's defence has leaked goals: they conceded 15 in their last six listed games, and lost 0-3 at home to Wrexham and 1-5 at Southampton. The market gives the home win only about a 37.5% chance, so a draw or an away win is more likely overall.
Both sides won at the weekend, but Swansea's comeback win to go four points clear is the stronger signal, and no injury news was supplied for either team.