Championship · Wed 14 Oct, 21:45
Southampton to win @ 2.88 · 35%
The goal model rates Southampton clearly higher than the market does (45% vs 35%) and expects more away goals (1.94 vs 1.60). Southampton have lost once in their last six listed matches and scored freely at home. The news says they beat Portsmouth in the derby on 11 October, while Norwich lost 2-1 at Swansea on 10 October and conceded four goals in each of their last two listed games.
The sharp market still makes Southampton only about a 35% chance, so an away win is more likely not to happen than to happen. Norwich score often at home, beating Burnley 4-1 and Birmingham 2-1 in the listed games, and both sides concede regularly, which keeps a draw or home win very possible. Southampton play on Wednesday after a Sunday derby, one day less rest than Norwich, and a headline mentions a 'dramatic week' at the club.
Southampton come in from a derby win and Norwich from a defeat at Swansea, which slightly favours the pick, though no injury or line-up news was supplied for either side.