Championship · Wed 14 Oct, 21:45
Portsmouth to win @ 2.38 · 43%
The sharp market makes Portsmouth slight favourites at home with a 42.8% chance, and the price of 2.38 is close to fair. Portsmouth's last three home games produced a 2-0 win over Cardiff and a 2-2 draw with Blackburn. Sheffield United have lost three of their last six, including 1-3 at home to Norwich.
The goal model gives Portsmouth only a 33.4% chance and expects Sheffield United to score slightly more (1.37 to 1.26), so it clearly disagrees with the market. Portsmouth have won one of their last six games and scored in only half of them. They also come off a 0-1 loss at Southampton on 11 October, which leaves them one day less rest than Sheffield United, who beat Lincoln 3-0.
The headlines say there are fitness questions over Portsmouth's Shaughnessy and Marezi and that both managers have given injury updates, but they don't say who will miss the game, so the news is roughly neutral with a slight lean against Portsmouth.