Championship · Wed 14 Oct, 21:45
Draw @ 3.95 · 25%
The expected goals are close (1.41 v 1.23), which points to an even, fairly low-scoring game where a draw is plausible. The goal model puts the draw at 27.7%, above the market's 24.6%. Queens Park Rangers drew three games in a row up to 19 September, and the headlines suggest both teams drew last weekend: Queens Park Rangers against West Ham and Derby County 1-1 against Wrexham.
Even so, the draw is the least likely of the three results, at about one chance in four. Derby County's form is poor, with four losses in six games, which makes a Queens Park Rangers home win the most likely result. The match results supplied stop on 19 September, so they leave out recent games, and the price sits a little below fair value.
The headlines suggest both teams drew last weekend and report no major injuries for either team, so the news leans only slightly towards a draw.