Championship · Tue 13 Oct, 22:00
Stoke City to win @ 3.70 · 27%
Stoke City won four of their last six listed matches, including all three home games (2-1, 4-0, 1-0), and a headline reports a 2-1 win at Bolton. The goal model gives Stoke 29.2%, a little above the market's 27.0%. Middlesbrough have an injury setback involving Rokas Pukstas.
Middlesbrough are unbeaten in their six listed matches, and headlines report a home win over Wolves. Expected goals favour the visitors (1.46 against Stoke's 1.16), so Stoke are the underdog and lose this pick in roughly seven of ten cases. Boro also drew three of their last six, which makes a draw a real outcome.
Middlesbrough's reported injury setback to Rokas Pukstas slightly helps Stoke, while the Stoke headlines (a win at Bolton, a striker's future) mean little for this match.