Serie A · Mon 12 Oct, 21:45
Udinese to win @ 3.40 · 29%
The goal model has Udinese as slight favourites on expected goals (1.34 against 1.27) and gives them about 39% to win, well above the market's 29%. Torino's home form is weak: they lost to Roma and Milan, won only 1 of their last 5 league games, and conceded in all 6 recent matches. Udinese have shown attacking punch away from home, scoring 3 at Monza and 3 at Inter.
Udinese come in on three straight league defeats, including a 0-1 home loss to Cagliari, and have conceded 12 goals in their last 6. The market prices the away win at only about 29%, which means a home win or a draw is more likely by a wide margin. With expected goals this close, a draw is a real possibility.
The headlines are mostly previews, plus a report that Runjaic is keeping Kamara and Vojvoda on the flanks, with no confirmed absences, so the news is neutral for this pick.