Ligue 1 · Sun 11 Oct, 21:45
Over 2.5 goals @ 1.67 · 60%
The goal model expects about 3.6 goals (1.16 for Troyes, 2.42 for Marseille) and gives Over 2.5 a 69% chance, above the market's 60%. Troyes have conceded 10 goals in their last five, including a 2-6 home defeat to Strasbourg. Four of Marseille's last six matches went over 2.5 goals.
Troyes have failed to score in three of their last five and only two of those games went over 2.5, so a low-scoring Marseille win such as 0-2 is a realistic outcome. Marseille have lost four of their last five, with a 0-1 and a 0-2 among them, so their attack has been inconsistent. The price is close to fair, so the pick has no built-in margin.
Marseille are without Weah and Hojbjerg, while Guéiri, Kondogbia and Ndadi return, so the news gives no clear signal for the goals line either way.