Bundesliga · Sat 7 Nov, 20:30
VfB Stuttgart to win @ 1.69 · 61%
Kuponcu rates this at 61% against the market’s 61% (goal model: 61%): fair odds 1.65. Only take it at odds of 1.65 or higher.
The model and the sharp market agree closely, at about 61% for a Stuttgart win. The goal model expects Stuttgart to create a lot more (2.3 expected goals against 1.22). Stuttgart just won 4-2 away at Leverkusen, so they can clearly score heavily.
Stuttgart's recent form is poor: 2 wins in 6, including home defeats to M'gladbach and Dortmund. Werder Bremen are unbeaten in 6, with three wins and three draws, and have scored in every one of those games. Stuttgart also played and lost a Champions League game in Istanbul on Tuesday, so fatigue or rotation is possible.
Stuttgart's headlines are about a frustrating Champions League defeat at Galatasaray, which suggests midweek fatigue, and transfer talk around Demirovic; the Bremen-tagged items are mostly about other clubs, and no confirmed injuries or absences were supplied.
The case against is real but not overwhelming. The market and the model agree at about 61%, and the price is close to fair. Still, Stuttgart's poor home results, the short rest after their midweek trip to Istanbul and Bremen's unbeaten, high-scoring run all suggest the 2.3 v 1.22 expected-goals gap may overstate how strong a favourite Stuttgart are.