Championship · Tue 13 Oct, 21:45
Over 2.5 goals @ 1.62 · 61%
The goal model is far more bullish than the market (78% vs 61%), projecting about 4.1 total goals (2.88 for Wolves, 1.25 for Bolton). Both teams went over 2.5 in 4 of their last 6 listed matches. Bolton's defence has been leaky, conceding 3+ goals four times in six, and the news reports a 1-2 home loss to Stoke, which also went over.
Wolves have tightened up. Their last two listed games finished 1-0, and the news reports a 1-0 defeat at Middlesbrough, so three of their last four games produced only one goal. A double injury setback for Wolves was also reported, which could blunt the attack the model relies on. At 1.62, the price already reflects a likely high-scoring game.
Wolves' 1-0 loss at Middlesbrough and a reported double injury setback point slightly against goals, while Bolton's 1-2 defeat to Stoke fits their leaky record, so overall the news leans slightly against the pick.