Championship · Tue 13 Oct, 21:45
Wrexham AFC to win @ 2.40 · 42%
The model and the market agree closely (43.6% vs 42.2%), and Wrexham are expected to score more (1.42 vs 1.09 expected goals). West Bromwich Albion's listed matches are low-scoring, with only one goal or none in each, and headlines say they lost recently to Birmingham. Wrexham have won home games before, such as 2-1 against Southampton.
Wrexham's home form is mixed (W, D, L in the listed matches), and the 0-6 loss at West Ham raises doubts about their defence. Headlines say Wrexham must "ride out an injury storm", which could weaken their line-up, although no names were supplied. The pick still wins less than half the time, and a draw is quite likely against a West Brom side that rarely concedes many.
Wrexham's reported injury storm slightly weakens the home win case, and West Brom's recent loss to Birmingham only partly offsets it, but no player names were given.