Ligue 1 · 10 Eki Cmt 21:45
2.5 Üst @ 1.65 · 62%
Sonuç: 2–2 · tahmin tuttu
The model (61%) and the sharp-market consensus (61.8%) roughly agree that Over 2.5 is the likelier outcome, and the price of 1.65 is slightly above the fair 1.619. Expected goals of 1.93 for Monaco and 1.22 for Toulouse add up to about 3.15. Toulouse's recent games have been open: four of their last five had three or more goals.
The edge is very thin (about 1.9%), so any small error in the estimate wipes it out. Monaco's recent games have been fairly tight: only two of their last five went over 2.5, and their defence has conceded little. Forward Mika Biereth, Takumi Minamino and Mamadou Coulibaly are all out of Monaco's squad, which may weaken the home attack.
Biereth, Minamino and Coulibaly are out of Monaco's squad, which slightly weakens the home attack and mildly counts against Over; the 12:09 report may already be in the 17:08 market price.